A Statistical Correlation Between Low L-shell Electrons Measured by NOAA Satellites and Strong Earthquakes

Abstract:

More than 11 years of the Medium Energy Protons Electrons Detector data from the NOAA polar orbiting satellites were analyzed. Significant electron counting rate fluctuations were evidenced during geomagnetic quiet periods by using a set of adiabatic coordinates. Electron counting rates were compared to earthquakes by defining a seismic event L-shell obtained radially projecting the epicenter geographical positions to a given altitude. Counting rate fluctuations were grouped in every satellite semi-orbit together with strong seismic events and these were chosen with the L-shell coordinates close to each other. Electron data from July 1998 to December 2011 were compared for nearly 1,800 earthquakes with magnitudes larger than or equal to 6, occurring worldwide. When considering 30 - 100 keV energy channels by the vertical NOAA telescopes and earthquake epicenter projections at altitudes greater that 1,300 km, a 4 sigma correlation appeared where time of particle precipitations Tpp occurred 2 – 3 hour prior time of large seismic events Teq. This was in physical agreement with different correlation times obtained from past studies that considered particles with greater energies. The correlation suggested a 4-8 hour advance in preparedness of strong earthquakes influencing the ionosphere. Considering this strong correlation between earthquakes and electron rate fluctuations, and the hypothesis that such fluctuations originated with magnetic disturbances generated underground, a small scale experiment with low cost at ground level is advisable. Plans exists to perform one or more unconventional experiments around an earthquake affected area by private investor in Italy.