Satellite Phenology Observations Inform Peak Season of Allergenic Grass Pollen Aerobiology across Two Continents

Abstract:

Pollen exposure and prevalence of allergenic diseases have increased in many parts of the world during the last 30 years, with exposure to aeroallergen grass pollen expected to intensify with climate change, raising increased concerns for allergic diseases. The primary contributing factors to higher allergenic plant species presence are thought to be climate change, land conversion, and biotic mixing of species. Conventional methods for monitoring airborne pollen are hampered by a lack of sampling sites and heavily rely on meteorology with less attention to land cover updates and monitoring of key allergenic species phenology stages. Satellite remote sensing offers an alternative method to overcome the restrictive coverage afforded by in situ pollen networks by virtue of its synoptic coverage and repeatability of measurements that enable timely updates of land cover and land use information and monitoring landscape dynamics and interactions with human activity and climate. In this study, we assessed the potential of satellite observations of urban/peri-urban environments to directly inform landscape conditions conducive to pollen emissions. We found satellite measurements of grass cover phenological evolution to be highly correlated with in situ aerobiological grass pollen concentrations in five urban centres located across two hemispheres (Australia and France). Satellite greenness data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were found to be strongly synchronous with grass pollen aerobiology in both temperate grass dominated sites (France and Melbourne), as well as in Sydney, where multiple pollen peaks coincided with the presence of subtropical grasses. Employing general additive models (GAM), the satellite phenology data provided strong predictive capabilities to inform airborne pollen levels and forecast periods of grass pollen emissions at all five sites. Satellite phenology offer promising opportunities of improving public health risk management through dissemination of timely data for use in public health action and alerts and to minimise the impact of these common chronic conditions.