Recovering Total Megathrust Slip Across the Seismic Cycle: Results from Two Decades of Study at the Nicoya Seismic Cycle Observatory (NSCO)

Abstract:

Unlike most subduction environments that exist mostly or entirely offshore, the Nicoya Peninsula’s location allows for unique land-based observations of the entire down-dip extent of coupling and failure along the seismogenic megathrust. Because of this geometry and approximately 50-year repeat cycle of mid-magnitude 7 earthquakes there, numerous geophysical studies were focused on the peninsula. Most notably of these are the dense seismic and GPS networks cooperatively operated by UC Santa Cruz, Georgia Tech, U. South Florida, and OVSICORI, collectively called the Nicoya Seismic Cycle Observatory (NSCO). The megathrust environment beneath Nicoya is additionally characterized by strong along-strike transitions in oceanic crust origin and geometries, including massive subducted seamounts, and a substantial crustal suture well documented in recent work by Kyriakopoulos et al. [JGR, 2015].

Using GPS data collected from campaign and continuous sites going back approximately 20 years, a number of studies have imaged components of the seismic cycle, including late-interseismic coupling, frequent slow-slip events, coseismic rupture of a moment magnitude 7.6 earthquake in 2012, and early postseismic response. The derived images of interface locking and slip behavior published for each of these episodes use different model geometries, different weighting schemes, and modeling algorithms limiting their use for fully characterizing the transitions between zones. Here, we report the first unified analysis of the full continuum of slip using the new locally defined 3D plate interface model. We focus on evaluating how transitions in plate geometry control observed locking, slip, and quantifying how well pre-seismic images of megathrust locking and slow-slip events dictate coseismic and postseismic behavior.

Without the long-term and continuous geodetic observations made by the NSCO, this work would not have been possible.