Cells, Agents, and Support Vectors in Interaction – Modeling Urban Sprawl based on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Techniques in a Post-Industrial Region

Abstract:

Since the beginning of the millennium, artificial intelligence techniques as cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) have been incorporated into land-system simulations to address the complex challenges of transitions in urban areas as open, dynamic systems. The study presents a hybrid modeling approach for modeling the two antagonistic processes of urban sprawl and urban decline at once. The simulation power of support vector machines (SVM), cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) are integrated into one modeling framework and applied to the largest agglomeration of Central Europe: the Ruhr. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) functions as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. The machine learning algorithm of SVM is applied in order to enhance SLEUTH. Thus, the stochastic variability of the CA is reduced and information about the human and ecological forces driving the local suitability of urban sprawl is incorporated. Subsequently, the supported CA is coupled with the MAS ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). The MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions based on interactions between household and city agents. Semi-explicit urban weights are introduced as a possibility of modeling from and to the pixel simultaneously. Three scenarios of changing housing preferences reveal the urban development of the region in terms of quantity and location. They reflect the dissemination of sustainable thinking among stakeholders versus the steady dream of owning a house in sub- and exurban areas. Additionally, the outcomes are transferred into a digital petri dish reflecting a synthetic environment with perfect conditions of growth. Hence, the generic growth elements affecting the future face of post-industrial cities are revealed. Finally, the advantages and limitations of linking pixels and people by combining AI and machine learning techniques in a multi-scale geosimulation approach are to be discussed.