Decadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Annual Frequency in Different Ocean Basins

Abstract:

Yating Zhao¹, Jing Jiang¹

1 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China

Abstract: Tropical cyclone, one of the most severe global natural disasters, causes massive casualties and economic losses every year, greatly influences the rapid development of the modern society. Using hurricane best track data from JTWC and TPC we investigate the decadal variations of TC activities. Our research indicates that the variability of TC frequency of different ocean basins (North Indian Ocean (NIO), Northwest Pacific Ocean (WP), Northeast Pacific Ocean (NEP), North Atlantic Ocean (NA) and South Hemisphere (SH)) all have significant decadal periods, and these decadal signals have something connect with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which acting as the background, modulating and influencing the synoptic scale weather systems. Through diagnosing the oceanic and atmospheric circulation in different stages of PDO, we find that, as the PDO signal transmits through the Pacific Ocean, the atmospheric circulation changes accordingly all over the tropical ocean. And they influence the dynamic conditions in the troposphere and promote or restrain the tropical cyclone activities in these areas. In another word, in the positive phase of PDO, there are much more (less) TC activities observed over the NEP (NA, WP, NIO, SH), which very likely due to the favorable (unfavorable) environmental factors, such as higher (lower) SST, weaker (stronger) vertical wind shear, higher (lower) relative humidity in the middle level of troposphere, and low level positive (negative) vorticity in the local area. Meanwhile, what should be noted is that the primary environmental factor could be very different in different ocean basin.

Keywords: tropical cyclone, decadal variability, PDO