The two-timescale response of Antarctic sea-surface temperature and sea-ice cover to ozone depletion

Abstract:

In recent modelling work, we showed that the response of Antarctic sea-surface temperature and sea-ice cover to abrupt ozone depletion has two phases: a fast inter-annual (~1-5y) adjustment in which the surface ocean cools and sea-ice cover increases, followed by a slower decadal trend leading to a warming of the surface ocean and a reduction of sea-ice cover. I will first summarize the dynamics behind the two-timescale response and how it can help reconcile diverging views on the relationship between ozone depletion and Antarctic sea ice changes. Using numerical experiments, I will then show that knowledge of the two-timescale response can be used to predict how the coupled climate responds to a time-varying ozone distribution, such as one of depletion and recovery. These ideas will then be used to evaluate how 1) ozone depletion might have contributed to recent observed decadal Antarctic sea-ice trends and 2) the ozone-driven signal can emerge from natural variability. Finally, implications for the ability of coupled climate models to reproduce observed sea-ice trends will be discussed.