H31F-1468
A Modified Formula of the First-order Approximation for Assessing the Contribution of Climate Change to Runoff Based on the Budyko Hypothesis
Wednesday, 16 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Wenzhao Liu, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China, Tingting Ning, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, Xiaoyang Han, Northwest A&F University, State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Yangling, China and Hydro-ecology team on the Loess Plateau
Abstract:
The climate elasticity based on the Budyko curves has been widely used to evaluate the hydrological responses to climate change. The Mezentsev-Choudhury-Yang formula is one of the representative analytical equations for Budyko curves. Previous researches mostly used the variation of runoff (R) caused by the changes of annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) as the hydrological response to climate change and evaluated it by a first-order approximation in a form of total differential, the major components of which include the partial derivatives of R to P and ET0, as well as climate elasticity on this basis. Based on analytic derivation and the characteristics of Budyko curves, this study proposed a modified formula of the first-order approximation to reduce the errors from the approximation. In the calculation of partial derivatives and climate elasticity, the values of P and ET0 were taken to the sum of their base values and half increments, respectively. The calculation was applied in 33 catchments of the Hai River basin in China and the results showed that the mean absolute value of relative error of approximated runoff change decreased from 8.4% to 0.4% and the maximum value, from 23.4% to 1.3%. Given the variation values of P, ET0 and the controlling parameter (n), the modified formula can exactly quantify the contributions of climate fluctuation and underlying surface change to runoff. Taking the Murray-Darling basin in Australia as an example of the contribution calculated by the modified formula, the reductions of mean annual runoff caused by changes of P, ET0 and n from 1895-1996 to 1997-2006 were 2.6, 0.6 and 2.9 mm, respectively, and the sum of them was 6.1 mm, which was completely consistent with the observed runoff. The modified formula of the first-order approximation proposed in this study can be not only used to assess the contributions of climate change to the runoff, but also widely used to analyze the effects of similar issues based on a certain functional relationship in hydrological and climate changes.
