Opportunities for Enhancing Seasonal Prediction in Ethiopia and Challenges in Addressing Sectoral Needs

Abstract:

Ethiopia’s National Meteorological Association (NMA) regularly issues season-ahead precipitation predictions nationally in support of sectoral applications including agriculture, reservoir management, and disaster risk management. Current NMA prediction techniques rely strongly on an analogue approach conditioned on the current El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. We explore simple to complex techniques for improving these ENSO-based predictions, building on current methods. We will also briefly discuss stated disconnects between NMA’s predictions and adoption into sectoral decision-making.