Using Global Geo-information for Disaster Risk Reduction Following the UN Sendai Framework: Climate Change and Disruptions to Global Fire Activity

Abstract:

Despite the knowledge that climate induced fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). The following study presents global fire datasets and environmental variables used to build spatial statistical baseline models of fire probability and examine the environmental controls on fire activity. As the UN Sendai Framework requires an update of hazard databases and an integration additional manmade hazards in the calculation of risks, this global fire study examines the magnitude and direction of change over two projection periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From the GCM ensemble results, the study identified areas of consensus for increases or decreases in fires. This type of information may inform policies and strategies of fire-prone nations to better utilize baseline and projection geo-information for enhancing disaster preparedness for what the Sendai Framework is calling an effective response, and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Certain biomes are sensitive to constraints on biomass productivity while others to atmospheric conditions promoting combustion. Substantial and rapid shifts are projected for future fire activity across vast portions of the globe. In the near term, the most consistent increases in fire activity occur in biomes with already somewhat warm climates; decreases are less pronounced and concentrated primarily in a few tropical and subtropical biomes. However, models do not agree on the direction of near-term changes across more than 50% of terrestrial lands. Although these models demonstrated that long-term environmental norms captured chronic fire probability patterns, future work is needed to assess how annual variation in climate variables could add more explanatory power. This study provides an examination of global disruptions to fire activity using a multi-model ensemble of GCM projections, an important step toward assessing fire-related vulnerabilities to humans and the ecosystems upon which they depend. This kind of global research follows the Sendai Framework’s people centered approach and applies to multiple levels of DRR work, from local to international.