Regional Influences of Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Activity: Back-trajectory Analysis of Baltimore/Washington Ethane Concentrations

Abstract:

Over the past several years, the combined utilization of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has led to a rapid increase in natural gas production, especially from the Marcellus Shale. To explore the impact of this activity downwind on regions with no natural gas production, the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) Model was used to generate 48-hour back-trajectories for summer, daytime hours from the years 2007-2014 in the Baltimore, MD and Washington, D.C. areas where hourly ethane measurements are available from Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS). For each of the years investigated, unconventional well counts were obtained for counties in the surrounding states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and Virginia, and counties exceeding a threshold of 0.05 wells/km² were designated as counties with a high density of wells. The back-trajectories for each year were separated into two groups: those which passed through counties containing a high density of wells, and those which did not. Back-trajectories passing through high-density counties were further screened by applying a height criterion where trajectories beyond 10% above the mixing layer were excluded. Preliminary results indicate that air parcels with back-trajectories passing within the boundary layer of counties with a high density of unconventional natural gas wells correspond to significantly greater concentrations of observed ethane at these downwind monitors.