Non-Linear Dynamics Approach to Assessing Woody-Encroachment in Grasslands

Abstract:

Woody species are encroaching on grasslands globally. Here, we investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of this encroachment in relation to climate and fire regimes in the central U.S. A low-dimensional model is used to assess stability of species composition. Sixe years of eddy covariance data at a paired grassland and woody encroachment site at the Konza Prairie LTER site are used to verify carbon and water dynamics. Historical aerial photography and remote sensing data are used to quantify the spatial diffusion of woody tree fraction into grasslands. Non-linear dynamics approaches are used to quantify the stability of vegetation and the presence of tipping points in relation to woody fraction, fire frequency and precipitation and temperature variability. Understanding the roles of multiple confounding forcing factors operating at disparate timescales is essential for predicting future woody encroachment and the water and climate implications of land cover transitions.