Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Advances and Challenges

Abstract:

We address the state-of-the-art in areas important to monitoring, current challenges, specific efforts that illustrate approaches addressing shortcomings in capabilities, and additional approaches that might be helpful.
The exponential increase in the number of events that must be screened as magnitude thresholds decrease presents one of the greatest challenges. Ongoing efforts to exploit repeat seismic events using waveform correlation, subspace methods, and empirical matched field processing holds as much "game-changing" promise as anything being done, and further efforts to develop and apply such methods efficiently are critical.
Greater accuracy of travel time, signal loss, and full waveform predictions are still needed to better locate and discriminate seismic events. Important developments include methods to model velocities using multiple types of data; to model attenuation with better separation of source, path, and site effects; and to model focusing and defocusing of surface waves. Current efforts to model higher frequency full waveforms are likely to improve source characterization while more effective estimation of attenuation from ambient noise holds promise for filling in gaps. Censoring in attenuation modeling is a critical problem to address.
Quantifying uncertainty of discriminants is key to their operational use. Efforts to do so for moment tensor (MT) inversion are particularly important, and fundamental progress on the statistics of MT distributions is the most important advance needed in the near term in this area.
Source physics is seeing great progress through theoretical, experimental, and simulation studies. The biggest need is to accurately predict the effects of source conditions on seismic generation. Uniqueness is the challenge here. Progress will depend on studies that probe what distinguishes mechanisms, rather than whether one of many possible mechanisms is consistent with some set of observations.