Internal versus external controls on age variability: Definitions, origins and implications in a changing climate

Abstract:

The unsteadiness of stream water age is now well established, but the controls on the age dynamics, and the adequate representation and prediction of those dynamics, are not. A basic distinction can be made between internal variability that arises from changes in the proportions of flow moving through the diverse flow pathways of a hydrologic system, and external variability that arises from the stochasticity of inputs and outputs (such as precipitation and streamflow). In this talk I will show how these two types of age variability can be formally defined and distinguished within the framework of rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions. Internal variability implies variations in time in the rSAS function, while external variability does not. This leads naturally to the definition of several modes of internal variability, reflecting generic ways that system flowpaths may be rearranged. This rearrangement may be induced by fluctuations in the system state (such as catchment wetness), or by longer-term changes in catchment structure (such as land use change).

One type of change, the ‘inverse storage effect’ is characterized by an increase in the release of young water from the system in response to an increase in overall system storage. This effect can be seen in many hydrologic settings, and has important implications for the effect of altered hydroclimatic conditions on solute transport through a landscape. External variability, such as increased precipitation, can induce a decrease in mean transit time (and vice versa), but this effect is greatly enhanced if accompanied by an internal shift in flow pathways that increases the relative importance of younger water. These effects will be illustrated using data from field and experimental studies.