Peruvian Tropical Glacier May Survive Longer Than Previously Thought: Landsat Image Analysis of Nevado Coropuna Ice Cap, Peru

Abstract:

Nevado Coropuna is a large volcanic complex in southern Peru (15.56°S, 72.62°N; 6,425 m). The complex is approximately 12 km east-west and 8 km north-south with elevation from ~4,500 m at the base to over 6,000 m at the highest points. This ice cap is the largest hosted by a volcano in the tropics, and one of the ten biggest ice masses in the tropics. Previous workers have predicted that the Coropuna ice cap will completely melt by 2050. We present a new analysis of historic satellite imagery to test this hypothesis. In this study, ice and snow are classified based on unique spectral signatures including spectral band thresholds, Normalized Difference Snow Index, and Band 4/5 ratio. Landsat scenes (L2, 4, 5, 7, and 8) from 1975 to present in addition to one SPOT scene (2013) are used. Previous workers used images from June and July, which are peak snow periods in southern Peru, leading to overestimates of ice area. This study uses November and December images when snow is at an annual minimum. Annual equilibrium line altitudes are calculated for each end of year image (November/December). The glaciers of Nevado Coropuna were found to be shrinking at ~0.5 km²/yr, which is ~1/3 the rate previously published. In this study, SPOT (1.5 m resolution) and Landsat 7 ETM scenes from November 23 and 26, 2013 respectively were used to calibrate the spectral band threshold classification. While this study suggests that the ice cap of Coropuna will persist until 2100 given current rates, water quantity and security remains a concern for Peruvian agriculture. Coropuna is an active volcano, so it poses great risk to surrounding inhabitants from lahars, flooding, and debris avalanches. Our new data suggest that these will continue to be risks late into this century.