Constraining Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Production in Northeastern Pennsylvania Using Aircraft Observations and Mesoscale Modeling

Abstract:

Leaks in natural gas infrastructure release methane (CH₄), a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The estimated fugitive emission rate associated with the production phase varies greatly between studies, hindering our understanding of the natural gas energy efficiency. This study presents a new application of inverse methodology for estimating regional fugitive emission rates from natural gas production. Methane observations across the Marcellus region in northeastern Pennsylvania were obtained during a three week flight campaign in May 2015 performed by a team from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Monitoring Division and the University of Michigan. In addition to these data, CH₄ observations were obtained from automobile campaigns during various periods from 2013-2015. An inventory of CH₄ emissions was then created for various sources in Pennsylvania, including coalmines, enteric fermentation, industry, waste management, and unconventional and conventional wells. As a first-guess emission rate for natural gas activity, a leakage rate equal to 2% of the natural gas production was emitted at the locations of unconventional wells across PA. These emission rates were coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the chemistry module (WRF-Chem) and atmospheric CH₄ concentration fields at 1km resolution were generated. Projected atmospheric enhancements from WRF-Chem were compared to observations, and the emission rate from unconventional wells was adjusted to minimize errors between observations and simulation. We show that the modeled CH₄ plume structures match observed plumes downwind of unconventional wells, providing confidence in the methodology. In all cases, the fugitive emission rate was found to be lower than our first guess. In this initial emission configuration, each well has been assigned the same fugitive emission rate, which can potentially impair our ability to match the observed spatial variability. The current model also does not distinguish between natural gas emissions during the different stages of transportation. We finally discuss the use of additional tracers such as the ¹³CH₄ isotopic ratio and ethane concentrations to separate the various contributors to the regional atmospheric CH₄ enhancement.