G43A-1033
Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Thursday, 17 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Ricarda Winkelmann1, Anders Levermann1, Andy Ridgwell2 and Ken Caldeira3, (1)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (2)University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States, (3)Carnegie Institution for Science Washington, Washington, DC, United States
Abstract:
The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 meters in global sea-level rise. Here we show in simulations with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil-fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil-fuel emissions of 10 000 GtC, Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West- and East Antarctica results in a threshold-increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.
