Tidal Triggering and Statistical Patterns of Microseismicity at Axial Volcano on the Juan de Fuca Ridge

Abstract:

Tidal stress changes are known to modulate the timing of microearthquakes within many mid-ocean ridge volcanic systems. At Axial Volcano, located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, earthquakes occur preferentially when volumetric extension peaks near times of low ocean tide. Autonomous ocean-bottom hydrophone (OBH, 2007-2011) and cabled ocean bottom seismometer (OBS, Nov. 2014-) data are used to quantify the strength of tidal triggering in time periods before the April 2011 and April 2015 eruptions at Axial Volcano. The mean percent excess at times of low ocean-tide is ~14% (16% std) in the four years prior to the 2011 eruption and ~18% (17% std) in the five months prior to the 2015 eruption. The sensitivity of earthquakes to tidal stress does not evolve systematically prior to either eruption; however, this pattern is disturbed by much larger stress changes associated with the onset of dike intrusion. Following dike injection and eruption, seismicity rates drop sharply. As seismicity rates continue to rise in the months following the 2015 eruption, real-time data available from the cabled OBS network will be used quantify temporal patterns in microearthquake activity as dike induced stresses are relaxed and the magma chamber inflates.