GC41D-1119
Projections of climate change effects on discharge and inundation in the Amazon River basin
Thursday, 17 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Rodrigo C. D. Paiva1, Mino Sorribas1, John M Melack2, Charles Jones2, Leila V Carvalho2, Juan Martin Bravo1, Edward Beighley3, Bruce R. Forsberg4 and Marcos Heil Costa5, (1)UFRGS Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Institute of Hydraulic Research, Porto Alegre, Brazil, (2)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (3)Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Boston, MA, United States, (4)Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus, Brazil, (5)UFV Federal University of Vicosa, Vicosa, Brazil
Abstract:
Climate change and related effects on the hydrologic regime of the Amazon River basin can have major impacts on human and ecological communities, transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined projections of climate change effects on discharge and inundation within the Amazon River basin. We used the regional hydrological model MGB-IPH coupled with a 1D river hydrodynamic model simulating water storage over the floodplains. The model’s capability to represent physical processes over the Amazon was demonstrated in previous validation against multi in situ and remotely sensed observations. Future climate projections for the 2070 to 2099 time period were obtained by selecting five climate models from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent Amazon climate. The climate projections present large uncertainty and results from different climate models do not agree on the sign of changes in total Amazon flood extent or discharge along the main stem of the Amazon River. However, model projections generally show better agreement with wetter (drier) conditions over western (eastern) portions of the Amazon basin. Results indicate increased mean and maximum river discharge for large rivers draining the Andes in northwestern Amazon, with increased mean and maximum discharge and inundation extent over Peruvian floodplains and Solimões River in western and central Amazonia. Decreased river discharges (mainly in the dry season) are projected for eastern basins, and decreased inundation extent at low water period in the central and lower Amazon.
