Decadal Forecast of Surface Ozone Conditions in the Continental US

Abstract:

Abstract

In this study, the Critical Design Value (CDV) model (Chu, 2007) was tested to make an air quality forecast of U.S. county level ozone conditions relative to the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) in the U.S. All available ambient 8-hour ozone concentration data monitored in the United States from 1990-2009 were used in a cross-validation test on the CDV model forecast capability for up to 10 years. The overall model performance indicates that applying ozone monitoring data in 266 counties with complete records to the model, 83.8% (or 223 counties) of the model predictions matches the actual observed rate of exceedances of the current 75 ppb ozone NAAQS in 2000-2009. A 2010-2020 model forecast was then made to predict the areas where surface ozone conditions could potentially exceed the current 75 ppb National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).