Improving the Projections of Vegetation Biogeography by Integrating Climate Envelope Models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

Abstract:

Assessing changes in vegetation is increasingly important for conservation planning in the face of climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are important tools for assessing such changes. DGVMs have been applied at regional scales to create projections of range expansions and contractions of plant functional types. Many DGVMs use a number of algorithms to determine the biogeography of plant functional types. One such DGVM, MC2, uses a series of decision trees based on bioclimatic thresholds while others, such as LPJ, use constraining emergent properties with a limited set of bioclimatic threshold-based rules. Although both approaches have been used widely, we demonstrate that these biogeography outputs perform poorly at continental scales when compared to existing potential vegetation maps. Specifically, we found that with MC2, the algorithm for determining leaf physiognomy is too simplistic to capture arid and semi-arid vegetation in much of the western U.S., as well as is the algorithm for determining the broadleaf and needleleaf mix in the Southeast. With LPJ, we found that the bioclimatic thresholds used to allow seedling establishment are too broad and fail to capture regional-scale biogeography of the plant functional types. In response, we demonstrate a new approach to determining the biogeography of plant functional types by integrating the climatic thresholds produced for individual tree species by a series of climate envelope models with the biogeography algorithms of MC2 and LPJ. Using this approach, we find that MC2 and LPJ perform considerably better when compared to potential vegetation maps.