Dynamic Equilibrium Inter-annual Snow Modeling for Wyoming using Reconstructed Regional Atmospheric Conditions

Abstract:

The inland glacier retreat has often been considered as one of clearest evidences of the global warming last several decades. However, when we try to model the evolution of the inland inter-annual snow storage including glaciers using a standard energy and mass balance snow model, it is impossible to keep the snow storage constant under a constant climate condition. This study treats the inland glaciers as a dynamic equilibrium system that remains constant under static climate condition. We introduced a sub-grid scale parameterization that moves snow/ice from high elevation areas to valleys as the equilibrating factor of the system. This movement of snow/ice occurs by means of wind re-distribution, avalanches, and glaciation. The physically-based model of a dynamic equilibrium snow system at a regional scale was applied to the entire state of Wyoming for long-term simulation. The developed snow model, named RegSnow model, was coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the snow surface energy fluxes during the 33-year-long historical period for transient model calibration. The RegSnow model predicted that 82.2% of interannual snow and ice storage in Wyoming may disappear by 2100 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario based on the climate projection by CMIP5 GCMs.