In-progress X-ray Flare Forecasting

Abstract:

Solar X-ray flares release intense amounts of radiation and can be associated with subsequent changes in the geomagnetic field as well as a large influx of solar energetic particles. From analyses of 50,000 flares detected with the NOAA GOES satellites over the past 40 years, Winter & Balasubramaniam (2015) introduced a flare phase diagram where X-ray observables indicating flare temperature and background solar activity levels can be used to separate flares of different peak flux. We present results from adapting this method into a real-time forecast tool. Real-time GOES X-ray observations are used to predict expected flare class, with updates made every 1-minute.
KSB, in part by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research on "the Physics of Coupled Flares and CME Systems".
LM was supported by AER, and in part by a contract supported by AFRL/RV