Streamflow responses to Chilean Megathrust earthquakes during the 20th and 21st centuries

Abstract:

Coseismic static stress and dynamic stresses generated by propagating seismic waves cause responses in hydrological systems. Such responses include changes in the water level, hydrochemistry and streamflow discharge. Earthquake effects on hydrological systems provide a means to study the interaction between stress changes and regional hydrology, which is otherwise rarely possible. Chile is a country of frequent and large earthquakes and thus provides abundant opportunities to study such interactions and processes.

Here we present streamflow responses to several Chilean Megathrust earthquakes, including the 1943 Mw 8.1 Coquimbo, 1950 Mw 8.2 Antofagasta, 1960 Mw 9.5 Valdivia, 1985 Mw 8.0 Valparaiso, 1995 Mw 8.0 Antofagasta, 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, and the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquakes. The stream gauges (n=716) are scattered across Chile, from the Altiplano in the North to Tierra del Fuego in the South. The network thus covers the Andes mountain ranges, the central valley, the Coastal Mountain ranges and (mainly in the more southern parts) the Coastal flats.

We combine empirical magnitude-distance relationships, tree-based machine learning tools, and process-based modeling to characterize responses. We first assess the streamflow anomalies and relate these to environmental factors including geology, topography, altitude, soil and vegetation. We then apply 1D-groundwater flow modeling to selected catchments in order to test competing hypotheses for the origin of streamflow changes. We show that the responses of streamflow were heterogeneous, both in sign (decreases and increases in discharge) and in magnitude.