Freezing Rain Diagnostic Study Over Eastern Canada Using the 5th Generation Canadian Regional Climate Model

Abstract:

Northeastern North America is often affected by freezing rain events during the cold season. They can have significant consequences (from road accidents, to severe power outages) despite their intensity and duration. The 1998 Ice Storm over Eastern Canada and Northeastern United States is an example of an extreme event with catastrophic consequences. A total of up to 150 mm of ice accumulated during 10 days were observed in some areas. This natural disaster has highlighted the need to better understand how such phenomena will evolve with future climate scenario. The goal is to investigate the feasibility of using regional climate modeling to diagnose the occurrence of freezing rain events over Quebec (Canada). To address this issue, we used the 5^th generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), from 1979 to 2014. An empirical method (Bourgouin, 2000) developed to determine the type of winter precipitations was chosen to diagnose freezing rain events. The study focused in the Montreal area and the St. Lawrence River Valley (Quebec, Canada). The sensitivity of the model to horizontal resolution was explored by using three resolutions: 0.44°, 0.22° and 0.11°. In general, freezing rain was diagnosed consistently at all resolutions but the higher one (0.11°) produced more realistic results due to a better representation of the orography. Using the higher resolution, the results showed that the climatology of the freezing rain occurrence in the Montreal area is comparable to available observations. It also suggested that the role of the specific orography of the region with the St. Lawrence River Valley can impact the characteristics of freezing rain events in this area. Overall, this study will contribute to a better preparedness for such events in the future. High resolution regional climate simulations are essential to improve the reproduction of local scale orographically-forced phenomena.