What Geological, Economic, or Policy Forces Might Limit Fossil Fuel Production?

Abstract:

In order to ensure a 50% chance of keeping global temperatures from exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels, it has been estimated that total carbon dioxide emissions between 2011-2050 must be capped at roughly 1,100 gigatons.[1] However, some estimates calculate that global fossil fuel reserves—including unconventional oil and gas—hold at least three times this amount of potential greenhouse gas emissions.[2]What socio-political, technological, or economic forces are most likely to keep these energy resources from being burned?

While it is difficult to predict with specificity what combination of technological, geological, or human factors will significantly minimize global fossil fuel production, there are at least four key potential drivers:

1. Under-investment and the economics of unconventional oil and natural gas;

2. International policy, driven by citizen demand and leadership from key nations;

3. Massive deployment of renewable energy sources and other technological solutions; and

4. Large-scale energy curtailment resulting from global economic contraction.

We will explore the implications, viability, and consequences of each of these potential factors.

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[1] [1]United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Fifteenth Session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its Fifteenth Session. United Nations Climate Change Conf. Report 43 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/11a01.pdf (UNFCC, 2009)

[2] Raupach, M. R. et al. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions. Nature Clim. Chang. 4, 873–879 (2014)