The Tropical Andes without Snow and Ice – Impacts, Uncertainties and Challenges Ahead

Abstract:

Climate change has lead to significant glacier retreat in the tropical Andes over the past several decades. Despite the apparent hiatus in warming along the Pacific coast, temperature continues to rise at higher elevations, putting smaller glaciers in lower lying mountain ranges on the verge of complete disappearance.

As a result water availability and water quality in glacier-fed river systems will be reduced during the dry season. The lack of a seasonal snow cover in the tropics, which provides for an additional hydrologic buffer in mid-latitude mountain ranges, further exacerbates the situation. Altered precipitation regimes, including changes in total precipitation amount, changes in the rain/snow ratio, or changes in the wet season length will also affect water availability, but projections of these changes are currently fraught with uncertainty.

The importance of glacier-fed water supply varies between regions and depends on the presence of other water regulators (reservoirs, wetlands), the length of the dry season and the trajectory of water demand (population growth, expanding economic activities).

Here we will review downscaled CMIP5 model results for some of these mountain ranges and discuss the consequences of future warming and projected precipitation changes for the Andean cryosphere, while considering uncertainties associated with downscaling methodology, model dependency and choice of emission scenario.

Adaptation strategies will be evaluated in the light of these results, discussing the need to pursue no-regret strategies, when implementing water conservation measures. Lessons learned from past adaptation and capacity building activities in the region will be discussed, emphasizing a) the need to strengthen the institutional standing of authorities involved in glacier research, b) alignment of capacity building and international cooperation with the national and regional needs and c) improvements to long-term climate and glacier monitoring programs in the region, allowing for a more adequate future management of water resources.