Modelling the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes

Abstract:

The 1912 eruption of Novarupta-Katmai was the world’s most voluminous eruption since the 1815 eruption of Tombora. The eruption produced 17 km³ of ashfall and 11 km³ of pyroclastic flow deposits that filled nearby valleys, creating what is today known as the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes. These voluminous pyroclastic deposits continue to pose hazards when strong winds in the valley resuspend ash in times of low snow cover. These resuspension events may be confined to the valley and only recorded when there are local observations (web camera images, field crew). Occasionally, however, these events can loft ash up to altitudes of several kilometers and extend up to 250 km downwind, where it becomes an aviation hazard. A compilation of satellite observations and pilot reports indicate that such significant events occurred on at least 19 occasions since 2003. The longest duration events occurred in the autumn months of September and October. Predicting the resuspension of ash requires estimates of when the ash is exposed (low snow cover), the magnitude of surface wind gusts, and the threshold friction velocity (u*). Models of u* require a characterization of the source ash (density, grain-size distribution) as well as soil moisture. We have sampled source deposits and have installed instruments in the Katmai region to record the relevant meteorological parameters in order to better predict these resuspension events. Using real-time measurements coupled with high-resolution (6 km, 1 hour) meteorological forecast products and a reanalysis of conditions that produced historic events, we constrain the parameters applicable the resuspension of Novarupta ash thus improving our ability to forecast this potential ash hazard. The volcanic ash dispersion and deposition model, Ash3d, will be used to forecast the transport of the resuspended ash.