ZONIFICATION OF AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SLOPE INSTABILITY IN THE STATE OF COLIMA, MEXICO

Abstract:

The Topography of the State of Colima in combination with the tectonic and geographic situation originates vulnerability to the slope instability in the Occidental part of Mexico. This problematic increase in rain Season ( May to November) due to the presence of hurricanes that can produce a great precipitations in a short time period. Likewise the seismicity present in this area due to the tectonic interaction of the tectonic plates (Cocos subducting to the Northamerica) contribute to increase this phenomenology. Here we present the results of zonification using a methodology to estimate the susceptibility areas and a procedure to estimate the probability of occurrent of this phenomena originated by precipitation and seismicity. By zonification of areas we consider topographic, morphologic and geologic factors to determine the category of the areas. . For the risk we consider the Susceptibiliy, Precipitation and Seismicity as will be described here. We consider the Precipitation return period of 2, 5, 10, 50 and 100 years to estimate the risk of slope instability in the State of Colima. We observe that risk increase on this area considering the precipitation return periods of 25, 50 and 100 years and it will be accelerated by the occurrence of seismicity specially by magnitude great than 7 as it occurs at least one time each 5 years.