Application of the 30km FIM-iHYCOM Coupled Model to Subseasonal Forecasting

Abstract:

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project organized by NOAA/CPC is aimed at improving S2S forecast skill by employing a multi-model ensemble strategy. ESRL has committed to participating in the S2S NMME with its coupled global atmospheric/ocean model consisting of the Flow-following Icosahedral Model (FIM) and the icosahedral Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (i-HYCOM). FIM-iHYCOM hindcast runs are now in progress at 30km resolution, highest resolution for the 16-year subseasonal NMME, and provides another tool in which phenomena predictability and process sensitivity studies can be performed. Initial results from FIM-iHYCOM show different but comparable overall skill with CFSv2, suggesting that ensemble diversity and skill can be improved with its addition. Additional hindcast results including MJO and sudden stratospheric warming verifictions will be presented.