NH13D-1966
Earthquake and Flood Risk Assessments for Europe and Central Asia

Monday, 14 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Richard J Murnane1, James E Daniell2, Philip Ward3, Hessel Winsemius4, Annegien Tijssen1 and Joaquin Toro1, (1)World Bank, Washington, DC, United States, (2)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Geophysical Institute, Karlsruhe, Germany, (3)VU University Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies, De Boelelaan, Netherlands, (4)Deltares, Delft, Netherlands
Abstract:
We report on a flood and earthquake risk assessment for 32 countries in Europe and Central Asia with a focus on how current flood and earthquake risk might evolve in the future due to changes in climate, population, and GDP. The future hazard and exposure conditions used for the risk assessment are consistent with selected IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Estimates of 2030 and 2080 population and GDP are derived using the IMAGE model forced by the socioeconomic conditions associated with the SSPs.

Flood risk is modeled using the probabilistic GLOFRIS global flood risk modeling cascade which starts with meteorological fields derived from reanalysis data or climate models. For 2030 and 2080 climate conditions, the meteorological fields are generated from five climate models forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Future flood risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with the SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by a flood when a grid cell receives any depth of flood inundation.

The earthquake hazard is quantified using a 10,000-year stochastic catalog of over 15.8 million synthetic earthquake events of at least magnitude 5. Ground motion prediction and estimates of local site conditions are used to determine PGA. Future earthquake risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with all five SSPs. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by an earthquake when a grid cell experiences ground motion equaling or exceeding MMI VI.

For most countries, changes in exposure alter flood risk to a greater extent than changes in climate. For both flood and earthquake, the spread in risk grows over time. There are large uncertainties due to the methodology; however, the results are not meant to be definitive. Instead they will be used to initiate discussions with governments regarding efforts to manage disaster risk.

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