Impacts of Air Pollution on Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation in China

Abstract:

Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation has been expanding rapidly in China with total capacity quadrupled from 8 to 32 GW between 2012 and 2014. Studies find that China has the potential to increase solar PV in total energy generation up towards 10% (about 300 GW in total capacity) by 2030. However, severe air pollution in China reduces the productivity of solar PV panels by scattering and absorbing sunlight before it reaches the surface. In this study, we first calculate the surface radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (considering only the direct effect) over China from 2003 to 2013 using the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis dataset constrained by satellite derived greenhouse gas, reactive gases and aerosols. Our results indicate that, from 2003-2013, the attenuation of sunlight by aerosols over Eastern China averaged about -25 W m^-2 compared with the global mean effect of -4.4 W m^-2. The largest attenuation is found in Northern China in spring when mean attenuation reached as high as -57 W m^-2. This attenuation reduced surface radiative flux by approximately 10%. In Southeastern China, maximum attenuation also occurred in spring, but had a smaller -40 W m^-2 monthly mean. Western China is pristine in comparison, featuring no more than a -15 W m^-2 monthly mean attenuation. These results imply a potentially large benefit for solar PV efficiency of improving air quality in eastern regions of China. We estimate that, if anthropogenic aerosols were entirely removed in China, solar PV generation would (1) increase 4.5-6.7% (varying among provinces) in Northeastern China where there is abundant solar resource,; (2) reduce the payback period by up to 1 year, increasing investment incentives particularly for distributed PV in Eastern China; and (3) increase total electricity generation in China in 2030 by up to 34 TWh/yr if the total capacity reaches 480 GW, equivalent to one-third of current annual electricity generation from the Three Gorges Dam.