Future Urbanization and the Management of Urban Heat Risk

Abstract:

We present urbanization scenarios that identify a range of urban population estimates to 2100 on a global spatial grid. We associate these data with model outputs that estimate future temperature using IPCC RCP8.5 scenarios for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2080 using minimum, maximum and mean urban population per grid cell exposure to average summer temperatures of > 35° C to identify national, regional and global totals. After an examination of urban extreme heat morbidity and mortality trends we review the range of policies (across sectors such as energy, buildings, health and hospitals, water supply, transportation, etc.,) with particular emphasis on knowledge from different sources, technologies and experiences – including indigenous knowledge systems, currently deployed in cities around the world that respond to this threat. Finally, we identify potential synergies, trade-offs and maladaptations in urban adaptation responses to extreme heat given estimated future population exposure.