Mapping resilience not risk: Turning the tide in New York City and Jamaica Bay

Abstract:

Resilience in urban coastal areas is affected by actions at multiple levels from individuals to community groups to city, state and federal governments. At any level, actions can be a response to immediate hazards (e.g. flooding of coastal homes) or long-term drivers of change (e.g. sea level rise). Jamaica Bay, a highly urbanized estuary within New York City, exemplifies the Nation’s coastal zone challenges. Prior to Hurricane Sandy, city, state, and federal governments had made the estuary a major focal point for habitat restoration, improvements to public access and outdoor recreation, and sustainable development. Sandy caused the highest flood level in the recorded history of New York City, eventually claiming 44 lives and costing over $19 billion. Electrical system failure caused four of NYCs wastewater pollution control plants to shutdown, discharging untreated sewage into Jamaica Bay.

The Sea Level Rise Tool for Sandy Recovery (the Tool), a flood mapping tool developed by several government agencies including FEMA, NYC, and the Executive Branch, integrated science from the National Flood Insurance Program and the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). While compound flooding hazards (stormwater plus coastal flooding) remain an important uncertainty, the Tool and subsequent NPCC mapping efforts provide sufficient evidence for science-based discourse around coastal flood risks in Jamaica Bay. But toward what outcome?

Coastal flood risk reduction measures and other management actions are managed within existing regulatory frameworks. Disaster relief funds appropriated by Congress in the immediate aftermath of Sandy have provided critical resources to the Jamaica Bay region. However, the challenge now is to transition from the short-term response to long-term resilience planning, a challenge which requires new institutional capacity. This transition to resilience planning and implementation is not only critical in New York City, but in other coastal cities around the nation. The Science and Resilience Institute at Jamaica Bay is a rare partnership between the City of New York, the National Park Service and a consortium of nine research institutions, focused on collaborative problem solving. Central to the Institute’s to success will be the question – can we start mapping resilience and not risk?