Mountainous terrain and violent conflict in the post-Soviet Caucasus.

Abstract:

What are the connections between mountainous terrain and violent conflict in the post-Soviet Caucasus? Political science and international relations research often use simplistic metrics to characterize terrain and its relation to conflict. We examine linkages between environmental conditions and conflict using fine-resolution spatially disaggregated data for violent events occurring in five wars in the broader Caucasus region: between the Russian state and separatists in Chechnya and the neighboring republics (1999-2002); the Russian state and Islamists in the North Caucasus (2002-2015); between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh (1990-2015); and between Georgia and separatists in South Ossetia (1991-2008) and Abkhazia (1992-2008). For environmental conditions, we consider land use, elevation, and slope to identify profiles of violence intensity within each of the five cases. Data include forest cover derived from Landsat imagery, slope data calculated from a digital elevation model, and land cover derived from MODIS imagery. The Landsat imagery provide consistent 30 meter information on percent forest cover across the multiple study regions. We use GIS (buffers around conflict points) to create categorical summary statistics. The “operational costs of context” vary dramatically across regions within the study area and by the actor who initiates subsets of violent events. Our empirical focus is on Russia’s south and the neighboring countries of the South Caucasus but we leverage comparisons between the five wars to generalize outward to other world regions and to contribute to research on conflict propensity in regions of rugged and mountainous terrain.