Can rainfed agriculture adapt to uncertainty in availability of water in Indus Basin?

Abstract:

Understanding impacts of hydrological and climatological functions under changing climate on regional floods, droughts as well as agricultural commodities remain a serious challenge in tropical agricultural basins. These “tropical agricultural basins” are regions where: (i) the understanding on hydrologic functions (such as precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, vegetation) are not well established; (ii) increasing population is at the convergence of rural and urban boundaries; (iii) resilience and sustainability of the water resources under different climatic conditions is unknown; and, (iv) agriculture is the primary occupation for majority of the population. More than 95% of the farmed lands in tropical regions are rainfed and 60% of total agricultural production in South Asia relying on seasonal rainfall. Tropical regions frequently suffer from unexpected droughts and sudden flash floods, resulting in massive losses in human lives and affecting regional economy. Prediction of frequency, intensity and magnitude of floods in tropical regions is still a subject of debate and research. A clear example is from the massive floods in the Eastern Indus River in July 2010 that submerged 17 million acre of fertile cropland. Yet, seasonal droughts, such as 2014 rain deficits in Indus Basin, had no effects on annual crop yields - thus creating a paradox. Large amounts of groundwater is being used to supplement water needs for crops during drought conditions, leading to oversubscription of natural aquifers. Key reason that rainfed agriculture is relying heavily on groundwater is because of the uncertainty in timing and distribution of precipitation in the tropical regions, where such data are not routinely collected as well as the basins are transnational, thus limiting sharing of data. Assessment of availability of water for agricultural purposes a serious challenge in tropical regions. This study will provide a framework for using multi-sensor satellite data and model products on computation of free usable water and associated uncertainty for rainfed agriculture.