Applying an economical scale-aware PDF-based turbulence closure model in NOAA NCEP GCMs.

Abstract:

A novel unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence, cloudiness, and shallow convection is being implemented into the NOAA NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) general circulation model. The approach, known as Simplified High Order Closure (SHOC), is based on predicting a joint PDF of SGS thermodynamic variables and vertical velocity and using it to diagnose turbulent diffusion coefficients, SGS fluxes, condensation and cloudiness. Unlike other similar methods, only one new prognostic variable, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), needs to be intoduced, making the technique computationally efficient.

SHOC code was adopted for a global model environment from its origins in a cloud resolving model, and incorporated into NCEP GFS. SHOC was first tested in a non-interactive mode, a configuration where SHOC receives inputs from the host model, but its outputs are not returned to the GFS. In this configuration: a) SGS TKE values produced by GFS SHOC are consistent with those produced by SHOC in a CRM, b) SGS TKE in GFS SHOC exhibits a well defined diurnal cycle, c) there's enhanced boundary layer turbulence in the subtropical stratocumulus and tropical transition-to-cumulus areas d) buoyancy flux diagnosed from the assumed PDF is consistent with independently calculated Brunt-Vaisala frequency in identifying stable and unstable regions.

Next, SHOC was coupled to GFS, namely turbulent diffusion coefficients computed by SHOC are now used in place of those currently produced by the GFS boundary layer and shallow convection schemes (Han and Pan, 2011), as well as condensation and cloud fraction diagnosed from the SGS PDF replace those calculated in the current large-scale cloudines scheme (Zhao and Carr, 1997). Ongoing activities consist of debugging the fully coupled GFS/SHOC.

Future work will consist of evaluating model performance and tuning the physics if necessary, by performing medium-range NWP forecasts with prescribed initial conditions, and AMIP-type climate tests with prescribed SSTs. Depending on the results, the model will be tuned or parameterizations modified. Next, SHOC will be implemented in the NCEP CFS, and tuned and evaluated for climate applications – seasonal prediction and long coupled climate runs. Impact of new physics on ENSO, MJO, ISO, monsoon variability, etc will be examined.