NH13B-1934
Quantifying Multi-Objective Tradeoffs under Deep Uncertainty in the Design of Sea-Level Rise Adaptation Strategies
Monday, 14 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Perry Oddo1, Gregory George Garner2, Benjamin Seiyon Lee3, Chris E Forest4,5 and Klaus Keller1,6, (1)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States, (2)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States, (3)Pennsylvania State University, Department of Statistics, University Park, United States, (4)The Pennsylvania State University,, Meteorology & Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States, (5)Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States, (6)Carnegie Mellon University, Engineering and Public Policy, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Abstract:
Sea-levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks for coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies to manage these flood risks are often designed using decision analytical tools that integrate key geophysical, economic, and technological models. Previous studies analyzing sea-level rise adaptation strategies have broken important new ground, but are often silent on the effects of potentially important deep uncertainties and the trade-offs between diverse objectives. Here we implement and improve on a previously published model (van Dantzig, 1956) to represent multiple stakeholder objectives as well as deep uncertainties surrounding model structures and parameters. We analyze the robustness of different strategies in the face of the deep uncertainties and apply global sensitivity analyses to identify key decision-relevant uncertainties.
