Sedimentary Records of the Paleohurricane Activity in the Bahamas

Abstract:

Hurricanes pose a threat to human lives and can cause significant destruction of coastal areas. This threat has become more pronounced with recent rises in sea level and coastal populations. Currently, there is a large degree of uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone activity. This is due to the limitations of climate models as well as the scarcity and unreliability of the current observational record. With so much uncertainty surrounding the current projections of hurricane activity, it is crucial to establish a longer and more accurate historical record. This study uses sediment cores extracted from blueholes in the Bahamas to develop a record of intense hurricane landfalls in the region dating back more than a millennia. The collected cores were sectioned, split, and scanned on an X-ray fluorescence scanner to obtain a high resolution core profile of the sediments’ elemental composition and to identify potential sedimentary structures. Age control of the samples was determined using radiocarbon dating, coarse fraction was measured every centimeter, and hurricane event bed frequency was established for each core. We assess the statistical significance of the patterns observed in the sedimentary record using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model to simulate storms representative of modern climatology. Cores extracted from two blue holes near South Andros Island provide approximately a 1600 year and a 600 year record respectively, with sedimentation rates exceeding 1 cm/year. Both records contain coarse grained event deposits that correlate with known historical intense hurricane strikes in the Bahamas within age uncertainties. The 1600 year record confirms previous hurricane reconstructions from the Caribbean indicating higher tropical cyclone activity from 500 to 1400 CE. In addition, these new high-resolution records indicate elevated intense hurricane activity in the 17^th and 18^th centuries CE, when activity is also elevated in lower resolution records from Abaco, Bahamas and Vieques, Puerto Rico. However, records from the northeast United States and Gulf of Mexico are relatively inactive. This spatial variability in intense hurricane landfalls suggests significant regional controls on hurricane activity.