Sustainable groundwater development under climate change in the Valle de Azapa, northern Chile

Abstract:

The Valle de Azapa is located at the northern border of the Atacama Desert, which is considered the driest place on earth. Agriculture is the main economic activity of the valley and it is possible due to the exploitation of groundwater pumped from the aquifer of the area, which is replenished by sporadic rainfall that occurred at the Andes. The high demand on the aquifer has generated a situation that is considered as fragile or unsustainable for the future. This situation could be worsened by the forecasted climate change impact on the region, which would result in reductions in precipitation of up to 40% in the next 100 years. This was the main motivation to study the potential impact of climate change on the sustainability of the aquifer under different water demand scenarios through numerical simulations. We model the impact of climate change by generating stochastic precipitation series that consider reductions between 0 and 40% during the next 100 years. We use the precipitation series to estimate recharge rates through a previously calibrated correlation. For each recharge series we consider three different scenarios: reduction, no change and increase in the water demand. We then use a groundwater model to analyze the evolution of the storage and natural discharge of the aquifer. The main conclusion is that even though the aquifer storage is reduced at the end of the analyzed period, it is still significant in comparison to the extracted groundwater. However, the extraction of groundwater significantly reduces and, in some cases, completely eliminates natural discharge such as springs that exist in the area. This indicates that the system reaches a long-term operation state during the simulated period and that discharges from wells are mainly covered by reductions of the natural discharge of the system. We relate this last finding to the concept of the “Water Budget Myth” proposed by Bredehoeft & Papadopulus (1982). We finish by commenting on possible measures to mitigate the environmental impact of groundwater use and to ensure the sustainability of the aquifer development.