Sea level rise and coastal installations: impacts from the changing frequency of nuisance flooding

Abstract:

How might climate change and the resulting sea level rise (SLR) affect coastal facilities? The changing frequency of nuisance flooding events will likely lead to increases in costs and may require changes to the management of assets. While a significant literature exists for climate change and extreme event impacts, there is a gap in the literature for impacts from nuisance events. This presentation explores methods for analyzing the changing frequency and spatial distribution of flooding events through a case study at the United States Naval Academy located in Annapolis, Maryland. We show that `nuisance events' -- not infrequent but low impact events, will become more frequent as a result of climate change and the resultant sea level rise. An increase in nuisance flooding events could lead to negative effects on day-to-day operations. For example, a vulnerable building on the campus currently averages 0.25 flood events per year at a cost of between 2,500 - 3,700 USD (deployment of flood protection measures). By 2055 the same building in an average year would need to deploy flood protection measures 33 times at a cost of between 300,000 - 500,000 USD (assuming constant costs). The costs for the entire installation could be much higher given the number of buildings located in vulnerable areas, in addition to the risk adverse nature of operations managers. This case study identifies a need to better understand the local relationship between operations costs, thresholds, and changes in locally important climate variables.