Transient Fluid Flow Along Basement Faults and Rupture Mechanics: Can We Expect Injection-Induced Earthquake Behavior to Correspond Directly With Injection Operations?

Abstract:

We explored injection-induced earthquake behavior in geologic settings where basement faults are connected hydraulically to overlying saline aquifers targeted for wastewater disposal. Understanding how the interaction between natural geology and injection well operations affects the behavior of injection-induced earthquake sequences has important implications for characterizing seismic hazard risk. Numerical experiments were performed to investigate the extent to which seismicity is influenced by the migration of pressure perturbations along fault zones. Two distinct behaviors were observed: a) earthquake ruptures that were confined to the pressurized region of the fault and b) sustained earthquake ruptures that propagated far beyond the pressure front. These two faulting mechanisms have important implications for assessing the manner in which seismicity can be expected respond to injection well operations.

Based upon observations from the numerical experiments, we developed a criterion that can be used to classify the expected faulting behavior near wastewater disposal sites. The faulting criterion depends on the state of stress, the initial fluid pressure, the orientation of the fault, and the dynamic friction coefficient of the fault. If the initial ratio of shear to effective normal stress resolved on the fault (the prestress ratio) is less than the fault's dynamic friction coefficient, then earthquake ruptures will tend to be limited by the distance of the pressure front. In this case, parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment, like the maximum earthquake magnitude or earthquake recurrence interval, could correlate with injection well operational parameters. For example, the maximum earthquake magnitude might be expected to grow over time in a systematic manner as larger patches of the fault are exposed to significant pressure changes. In contrast, if the prestress ratio is greater than dynamic friction, a stress drop can occur outside of the pressurized region providing the energy necessary to drive ruptures beyond the pressure front. In this case, although fluid injection may be ultimately responsible for causing earthquakes to nucleate, the seismicity might depend more closely on characteristics of the natural geology, such as the size of the fault.