Integrated Economic Modeling of Water Supply-Quality Tradeoffs: An Application to the Central Valley, California

Abstract:

Sustainable water management in the San Joaquin Valley, California involves the complex interaction of agricultural, municipal and industrial, and environmental water use. California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 requires groundwater basins historically in a state of overdraft to bring the basin into a sustainable balance over the next 20 years. In addition to limiting groundwater availability, implementation of the SGMA has implications for surface and groundwater quality. Availability of groundwater influences agricultural production decisions, resulting in variation in agricultural runoff and changes to surface and groundwater quality. Changes in water quality have economic impacts on agricultural production and urban water use. These impacts range from reductions in crop productivity to costs of alternative water supplies to amend declining water quality. We model the impact of agricultural and urban groundwater availability on surface water quality within the San Joaquin and Kings River watersheds in the Central Valley, downriver to the Mendota Pool by linking SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), an integrated water supply-quality model, with SWAP (Statewide Agricultural Production Model), a regional agricultural economics model. The integrated model specifies the relationship between changes in groundwater availability, groundwater elevation, agricultural production, and surface water quality. We link the SWAT-SWAP model output to urban and agricultural economic loss calculations that are a function of water quality. Model results demonstrate the economic tradeoffs between groundwater availability and water quality. The results of the integrated economic water supply-quality model are applicable to other regions in California and elsewhere that contain complex water supply-quality interactions.