The Effects of El Niño on Precipitation in Southern California Climate Divisions: Year 2016 Precipitation Forecast.

Abstract:

Recently, it has been reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that there is very high chance not only for El Niño to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, but also a remarkable chance for El Niño to last into early spring 2016. This research aims at: 1) investigating the impact of El Niño on precipitation in the Southern California Climate Divisions: Climate Division 6 South Coast Drainage, and Division 7 South Coast Desert Basin. 2) Analyzing the precipitation of Southern California region using the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method (EMD). 3) Looking at the SOI components and compare it with the precipitation components of Southern California Climate Divisions. 4) Comparing precipitation data with Niño indices: Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Nino 3.4, and Niño 4. As results, we found a significant cross correlation of 0.7 between SOI component 10 and precipitation component 10 in Climate Division 6. Furthermore, among all the Niño indices, Niño 3 region displayed the best correlation. When we compared precipitation division 7 component 9 with Niño 3 component 10, a 0.95 cross correlation value was obtained. The lowest cross correlation value of (0.33) was obtained from Climate Division 6, precipitation component 7 with Niño 4 component 7.