Using experiments and demographic models to assess rare plant vulnerability to utlity-scale solar energy development

Abstract:

Pressing challenges for the implementation of solar energy are the effects of construction and operation on protected animal and plant species. Siting and mitigation of solar energy often requires understanding of basic biology and distributions of rare species that are unknown. How can we rapidly collect the information necessary on species- and site-specific population dynamics to effectively design mitigation and conservation measures? We have developed an integrated approach to assessing the vulnerability of a suite of representative rare plant species in the region. We implemented a prioritized series of demographic and experimental studies over the past four years to identify the types of species, populations, and life stages most vulnerable to impact or prone to conservation efforts. We have found substantial variation in vegetative and sexual reproduction between study populations for several rare plants, including between populations that vary in putative impact by development and/or effects of experimental solar arrays. For a subset of species, we designed population viability analysis and applied them to identify sensitive vital rates and compare quasi-extinction probabilities under different climate and impact scenarios. By utilizing practical experiments to test for the effects of real or simulated impacts, we found differences in vital rates between natural and disturbed populations adjacent to and within solar installations. We draw conclusions from our work to guide the analysis of benefits, permitting, and design of utility-scale solar energy facilities.