Solar Flare, CME, and Proton Event Rates Correlated with Sunspot Number

Abstract:

The newly revised sunspot number series allows for placing historical geoeffective storms in the context of several hundred years of solar activity. Using statistical analyses of the GOES X-ray and differential particle observations from the past ~30 years and the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog (1996-present), we present sunspot number dependent predictions for expected flare, SEP, and CME rates. In particular, we present X-ray flare rates as a function of sunspot number for the past three cycles. We also show, as in the attached figure, that the 1-8 Angstrom background flux is strongly correlated with sunspot number across solar cycles. Similarly, we show that the CME properties (e.g., velocity and width) are also correlated with sunspot number for cycles 23 and 24. Finally, SEP rates and background proton flux levels are also scaled to sunspot number. These rates will enable future predictions for geoeffective events and place historical storms in context of present solar activity.