NG41A-1764
Internal Interdecadal Variability in CMIP5 Control Simulations
Thursday, 17 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Anson H Cheung, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, Michael E Mann, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, Leela M Frankcombe, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Matthew H England, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, Byron A Steinman, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, MN, United States and Sonya K Miller, Penn State University, University Park, PA, United States
Abstract:
Here we make use of control simulations from the CMIP5 models to quantify the amplitude of the interdecadal internal variability component in Atlantic, Pacific, and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature. We compare against estimates derived from observations using a semi-empirical approach wherein the forced component as estimated using CMIP5 historical simulations is removed to yield an estimate of the residual, internal variability. While the observational estimates are largely consistent with those derived from the control simulations for both basins and the Northern Hemisphere, they lie in the upper range of the model distributions, suggesting the possibility of differences between the amplitudes of observed and modeled variability. We comment on some possible reasons for the disparity.
