A21A-0034
Use of Historical Measurements to Constrain a Black Carbon Emission Inventory of the United States from 1960s to 2000s

Tuesday, 15 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Tianye Sun1, Tami C Bond2, Liang Liu3, Mark Flanner4, Thomas Kirchstetter5, Chaoyi Jiao4, Chelsea Preble6 and Wayne Chang1, (1)University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, (2)Univ Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States, (3)Univ of IL-Environ Engrg, Urbana, IL, United States, (4)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (5)UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, (6)University of California Berkeley, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Berkeley, CA, United States
Abstract:
We use historical coefficient of haze measurements in California and New Jersey to evaluate and constrain a black carbon (BC) emission inventory for the period 1960-2000. We estimate the relationship between emissions and ambient air concentrations of BC using the Community Atmosphere Model to create source-receptor that allow reconstruction of ambient, time-varying concentrations. We adjust this matrix to account for errors in modeled mixing height with observations. We also apply Heating Degree Days (HDD) data to estimate seasonal variation in emissions. However, HDDs do not fully explain the seasonal variation trend of the measurement.

The emission inventory used in this work is based on U.S. Energy Information Administration fuel use data published in 2010. We calculate BC emissions with Speciated Pollutant Emissions Wizard (SPEW). Modifications to previous work include use of the SPEW-Trend vehicle fleet model to compute vehicle emissions, incorporating parameters of vehicle type, age, retirement rate, and the number of superemitters.

Analyzing the discrepancy between reconstructed and measured BC concentrations of California and New Jersey identifies potential errors in historical emissions. Acknowledging the resolution difference between the reconstructed concentrations based on global model simulation and the urban measurements, we rely more on the discrepancies in trends than in absolute discrepancies. Although the observations decreased throughout this time period, the reconstructed concentrations peaked in the 1980s. Fuel use and emission factors for specific technologies and sectors in the BC emission inventory are analyzed to isolate those sectors most likely to cause the discrepancy. The modified emission inventory for the period 1960-2000 is presented.

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