Shallow Landslides Hazards in a Changing Climate

Abstract:

Rainfall-triggered shallow landslides pose hazards to communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation are expected to change under climate warming, but their effects on landslide abundance, size, and spatial distribution are poorly understood. Fractional changes in extreme precipitation can be considerably greater than those in mean precipitation as storm intensity is not constrained by the atmospheric energy budget. Changes in orographic precipitation may also alter the spatial pattern of extreme precipitation. We assess relative changes in extreme precipitation for varying return periods and event durations predicted by regional climate models (RCM) in the USA over the periods 1971-2000 to 2041-2070. We delineate areas where orographic precipitation contributes to changes in extreme precipitation by analyzing topography and local winds associated with these extremes. To verify that RCMs reflect theoretical predictions, we quantify precipitation changes on the lee and windward slopes. We assess impacts of extreme precipitation change on landslide characteristics by applying a search algorithm that predicts landslide abundance, location, and size to a study site in the Oregon Coast Range (OCR) with a 10-year landslide observational record. We test a range of precipitation scenarios, forest management practices, and antecedent moisture conditions. To explore effects of orographic precipitation, we rescale observed precipitation for representative lee and windward locations and find that fractional changes in mean winter precipitation are ~3 times larger on leeward slopes. The fractional changes in intensity are much greater for extreme precipitation than mean precipitation, and they increase with return period. In the Pacific Northwest, leeward increases are ~10% for 2-year events and ~20% for 30-year events. At our study site, a 20% increase in precipitation or antecedent moisture corresponds to a 30-40% increase in landslide volume, but up to 250% increases are predicted leeward of the OCR and in undisturbed forest. These results suggest that the largest relative change in future landslide hazards may not occur in the areas that are currently most susceptible, underscoring the importance of informed land use practices under climate change.