Three-dimensional data assimilation and reanalysis of radiation belt electrons: Observations over two solar cycles, and operational forecasting.

Abstract:

Understanding of the dynamics in Earth's radiation belts is critical to accurate modeling and forecasting of space weather conditions, both which are important for design, and protection of our space-borne assets. In the current study, we utilize the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, multi-spacecraft measurements, and a split-operator Kalman filter to recontructe the global state of the radiation belt system in the CRRES era and the current era. The reanalysis has revealed a never before seen 4-belt structure in the radiation belts during the March 1991 superstorm, and highlights several important aspects in regards to the the competition between the source, acceleration, loss, and transport of particles. In addition to the above, performing reanalysis in adiabatic coordinates relies on specification of the Earth's magnetic field, and associated observational, and model errors. We determine the observational errors for the Kalman filter directly from cross-spacecraft phase-space density (PSD) conjunctions, and obtain the error in VERB by comparison with reanalysis over a long time period. Specification of errors associated with several magnetic field models provides an important insight into the applicability of such models for radiation belt research. The comparison of CRRES area reanalysis with Van Allen Probe era reanalysis allows us to perform a global comparison of the dynamics of the radiation belts during different parts of the solar cycle and during different solar cycles. The data assimilative model is presently used to perform operational forecasts of the radiation belts (http://rbm.epss.ucla.edu/realtime-forecast/).