Santa Ana Winds and Fire Regimes of Southern California National Forests

Abstract:

In Southern California, it has long been understood that foehn-type Santa Ana winds are an important factor in the occurrence of large wildfires. Although a variety of anecdotal observations and statistical analyses have confirmed the importance of these winds to wildfire, particularly in the Fall months when Santa Ana winds overlap with dry fuels from summer drought, many of the details of those winds’ impacts on fire remain obscure.

This paper uses data regarding individual fires from California’s Fire and Resource Assessment Program database and a compilation of Santa Ana Wind days (SAW days) published by Abatzoglou et al. in 2013 to assess the relationship of Santa Ana winds to fire occurrence and size in Southern California. The analysis included 474 fires larger than 20 ha (~50 acres).that burned on the four Southern California national forests (Angeles, Cleveland, Los Padres and San Bernardino) between 1948 and 2010.

Overall, just 10.3% of the fires started on SAW days, and 14.4% experienced at least one SAW day between start and containment dates. The impact of Santa Ana winds is greater, however, with increasing fire size. For fires > 4000 ha, 18.4% began on SAW days, with 30.4% experiencing at least one SAW day before containment. And 20% of fires > 20000 ha started on SAW days, with 50% including one or more SAW days. Fires beginning on SAW days were larger, with a mean of 6239 ha compared to 2150 ha for fires that began on non-SAW days.

Only 2% of the fires that began on SAW days were started by lightning, suggesting that the impact of Santa Ana winds on Southern California fire regimes may be enhanced by humans’ role in ignitions.